An Empirical Analysis On The Impact Of Oil And Non-oil Exports On Nigeria's Economy (1981-2002)

ABSTRACT

This research focuses on the impact of oil and non-oil exports on Nigeria’s economy from 1981 to 2012. Data on gross domestic product, oil export and non-oil export were used. The ordinary least square (OLS) was used to estimate the parameters. The research results from econometrics analysis revealed that oil and non-oil exports have significant impact on Nigeria’s economy. The unit root test was conducted using the Augmented Dickey- Fuller and Phillip Perron unit root test and all the variables were integrated at order one. The cointegration test was also conducted using the Johansen cointegration test technique and the results shows that the variables under study have no long run equilibrium relationship. Other test conducted includes the Granger causality test and the autocorrelation test. The Granger causality test was conducted to determine the direction of causality. The study recommends as part of Nigeria’s strategy for achieving rapid and sustainable economic growth the fashioning of right policies such as bringing expert personnel that will be in charge of the Administration of the export promotion council because the national export promotion council remains the major vehicle for conveying the export policies of government specifically on non-oil exports.

 

TABLE OF CONTENT

TITLE

PAGE…………………………………………………………………………………………………………….1

APPROVAL PAGE…………………………………………………………………………………………………….2

DEDICATION………………………………………………………………………………………………………….3

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT……………………………………………………………………………………………4

ABSTRACT……………………………………………………………………………………………………………..5

 

CHAPTER ONE

1.0          INTRODUCTION…………………………………………………………………………………………….9

1.1          BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY…………………………………………………………………..9

1.2          STATEMENT OF PROBLEM………………………………………………………………………….11

1.3          OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY………………………………………………………………………...11

1.4          STATEMENT OF HYPOTHESIS………………………………………………………………………11

1.5          SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY……………………………………………………………………..12

1.6          SCOPE AND LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY………………………………………………….12

CHAPTER TWO

2.1.1   MEANING OF OIL AND NON-OIL EXPORTS…………………………………………………..13

2.1.2   OIL ACTIIVITIES IN NIGERIA…………………………………………………………………………..13

2.1.3   STRUCTURE OF EXPORT IN NIGERIA……………………………………………………………..15

2.1.4   NIGERIA OIL AND NON-OIL EXPORT PERFORMANCE…………………………………….16

2.1.5   EXPORT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH……………………………………………………………….17

2.1.6   EXPORT-LED GROWTH…………………………………………………………………………………..18

2.2     EMPIRICAL LITERATURE………………………………………………………………………………..19

2.3     LIMITATIONS OF PREVIOUS STUDIES……………………………………………………………..22

 

CHAPTER THREE

3.0     RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODOLOGY…………………………………………………………24

3.1     METHODOLOGY…………………………………………………………………………………………..24

3.2     MODEL SPECIFICATION………………………………………………………………………………… 24

3.3     METHOD OF EVALUATION…………………………………………………………………………….25

3.3.1   TEST BASED ON STATISTICAL CRITERIA………………………………………………………………25

3.3.2   TEST BASED ON ECONOMETRIC CRITERIA…………………………………………………………..26

3.4     DATA REQUIRED AND SOURCES…………………………………………………………………….26

 

CHAPTER FOUR

4.0     PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS OF RESULTS:

4.1     EMPIRICAL RESULT………………………………………………………………………………………..27

4.2     EXAMINATION OF THE PARAMETER SIGN OF THE PARAMETER ESTIMATES

4.3     STATISTICAL TEST OF SIGNIFICANCE……………………………………………………………….29

4.4     ECONOMETRIC TEST OF SIGNIFICANCE…………………………………………………………..30

4.4.1   AUTOCORRELATION TEST………………………………………………………………………………….…30

4.4.2   UNIT ROOT TEST (STATIONARITY TEST)………………………………………………………………..31

4.4.3   COINTEGRATION TEST………………………………………………………………………………………….32

4.4.4   GRANGER CAUSALITY TEST………………………………………………………………………………..32

4.5     EVALUATION OF THE WORKING HYPOTHESIS……………………………………………….33

4.6     IMPLICATION OF THE RESULT……………………………………………………………………….34

 

CHAPTER FIVE

5.0       SUMMARY OF FINDING, CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION:

5.1       SUMMARY OF FINDINGS……………………………………………………………………………….36

5.2       CONCLUSION OF THE STUDY…………………………………………………………………………37

5.3       RECOMMENDATION…………………………..58

 BIBLIOGRAPHY 

Apendixes